Australian Dollar At An Important Juncture

It can be certainly said that AUD/USD has surprised on the upside recently. Having reached several important resistances, and attempting breakout above them, what else can be said about the pair’s current and upcoming performance?

Let’s remember our yesterday’s observations regarding the AUD/USD price action:

(…) A rebound followed, taking the pair sharply up right to the medium-term declining resistance line, which could trigger a reversal in the very near future however.

Nevertheless,  taking into account the lack of the sell signals, another upswing and a test of the next declining resistance line can’t be ruled out.

Again, AUD/USD has moved higher yesterday, in line with our expectations. The pair moved above the resistance line, and broke above the late-October and early-November peaks, which is a bullish development.

This is especially so when we take into account the fact that the exchange rate also broke above the orange resistance area created by both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (in red) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (in green).

The bulls however didn’t manage to hold gained ground, and the previously broken green line based on the October lows encouraged the sellers to act.

As a result, the exchange rate pulled back earlier today and invalidated the earlier breakout above the previous peaks and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This suggests that a reversal and lower values of AUD/USD may be just around the corner.

The daily indicators haven’t flashed any sell signals however. This means that a retest of the green line based on the October lows at the beginning of the coming week can’t be ruled out.

Should we see reliable signs of the bulls’ weakness, we’ll consider going short.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Forex Trading Alert - this analysis' full version. There, we discuss also the current situation in EUR/USD and USD/CHF. The full Alert includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Nadia Simmons

Forex & Oil Trading Strategist

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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