Can The Oil Bulls Go On Pulling A Rabbit Out Of Their Hats?

Crude oil bulls are attempting a comeback early in the week. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hats? Carefully examining the situation, we have the answer to that question. It’s great to share the rich details. In the format you are used to – on time and highly actionable.

Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Yesterday, the rising green support line provided temporary relief to the bulls. Black gold moved higher but the lingering doubts as to the bulls’ strength remain. Namely, the price action left a sizable upper knot (which shows a kind of an intraday reversal) and also the volume of the upswing was lower than that of the decline (which has bearish implications).

Next, there is the discrepancy between the higher oil price and the action of the daily indicators. Just like we mentioned yesterday in the summary, Stochastics now fully issued its sell signal. Not to be left behind, CCI presents us with one, too. Let’s not forget the powerful combination of nearby resistances (the purple resistance zone and the red resistance line) that are likely to continue to keep any further gains in check.

All the above suggests that another attempt to break below the rising green support line is very likely in the coming days. This can happen perhaps even later today or tomorrow.

Before any decision to potentially increase the size of short position, we want to see oil trading below this green support line and the closed gap (marked with a horizontal green rectangle) first. This would provide a powerful signal that the oil price is ripe for a further decline. It simply depends on the force, volume and other circumstances such a break is made with. If favorable to the bears, the prudential approach is to follow the risk-reward ratio and increase the position smartly.

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Nadia Simmons

Forex & Oil Trading Strategist

Sunshine Profits - Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.