Market Forms Temporary Top

The second week of June was fairly uneventful as the market did its typical stallfest/shakefest fluctuations against a major level of 2800 from the March high region.  Essentially, the market reached a high of 2794.25 intraday on Monday (Jun 11) on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) and then it couldn’t sustain the pressure by the end of the day with the 2786 print.

This paved the way for our Monday night KISS report warning traders to be cautious of the potential rangebound market for the rest of the week and that there were better instruments to trade such as its sibling tech Nasdaq (NQ) futures index. The market told us the context of the story and gave decent clues by end of Monday. Fast forward, the rest of the week was spent inside a horizontal range 2796 vs 2765 doing the stallfest/shakefest on ES so no one was surprised. Along with the fact that on Friday the market closed at almost the same level as Monday which cemented the rangebound cautionary tale. On the bright side, NQ was one of the easier siblings to trade as it was in trending mode along with bigger range so the opportunities were just better.

The main takeaway from this week is that the market has formed a temporary top for ES at 2796. It could be treated as a double top pattern (against the March highs region) if this upcoming week flushes back into lower end support. Conversely, if the bulls during this upcoming week are able to breakout above 2796 along with follow through above the 2800-2807 March highs region, then this past week was just simply a high level consolidation pattern.

What’s Next?

Friday closed at 2781.5 with an intraday low of 2765.5 and a high of 2788.5. Short-term bears couldn’t maintain the intraday pressure to close the week off around the lows for the quadruple witching, but they are still hustling with the temporary top of 2796 on Wednesday heading into the 3rd week of June.

Nothing has changed since our last market post on Friday morning, we’re expecting the market to backtest 2755 first as long as below 2788 based on the prior 1hr white line projection chart and the market setup. Above 2788 would be considered too strong and likely a re-attempt for bulls towards 2796 and then a breakout potential.

As noted in the above section, the daily pattern is developing into either as a double top vs. March highs or it’s a high level consolidation pattern where the market will tell us more clues as price moves vs. the levels. Currently, leaning onto the double top formation combined with the temporary top setup of last week’s 2796 level. We’re realists and adaptable if price proves otherwise with the other scenario playing out as high level consolidation, utilize 2796 and then 2800-2807 March highs to open up breakout continuation.

See charts on the Emini S&P 500. 

Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.