Market News Report: January 13, 2020 – January 17, 2020

The Middle East crisis continued to escalate in the first half of last week. But then the fears have diminished and investors were awaiting Friday’s monthly jobs data release. Will the coming week bring some interesting news events? Let’s take a look at the details.

The week behind

We’ve seen more volatility last week as financial markets have been reacting to disturbing news from Iran. The price of gold jumped to multi-year record high in the first half of the week and stocks corrected some of their recent run-up. But the markets reversed its course very quickly as investors shrugged off Iran fears. Then they awaited Friday’s U.S. monthly jobs data release. The numbers were worse than expected, so we saw some “risk-off” trading action again on Friday. Last week we underlined the economic data releases from Canada and it was worth watching those news, as the led to a jump in USD/CAD currency pair.

Let’s take a look at Friday’s gold price action. The market jumped at the moment of data release but then it quickly retraced the whole advance. However, it continued higher into the weekly close. So worse-than-expected NFP data triggered an intraday advance in gold price:

But what is the most likely short-term path for the price of gold in a few trading days after the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls number release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 36-month-long period of time. The following chart shows that gold price was generally slightly gaining following the NFP release:

The week ahead

What about the coming week? Thursday’s U.S. Retail Sales number will probably be the most important data release this week. We will get China’s GDP data and the ECB releases on the same day. On Tuesday, the BOJ Governor Kuroda will speak and it will likely be closely watched by investors across all assets. The stock markets may focus on quarterly earnings releases from the U.S. banks. Let’s take a look at key highlights:

• The markets should focus on Thursday’s economic data releases this week: the Retail Sales number in U.S. and the GDP in China.
• On Thursday we will also get some important news from the Eurozone: the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a speech from ECB President Lagarde.
• The Earnings Season starts this week. We will mainly see quarterly earnings from banks in the coming days.
• The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will speak on Tuesday in the evening.
• There will also be series of economic data releases from the U.K. this week.

You will find this week’s the key news releases below (EST time zone). For your convenience, we broken them down per market to which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay extra attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. Moreover, we put the particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is more likely to trigger volatile movements. The news that are not in bold usually don’t result in bigger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of day trading, it might be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the below indications as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we are usually not engaging in any day trading during days with “bold” events on a given market. However, in case of more medium-term trades, we usually choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not change the currently opened position.

Our Market News Report consists of two different time-related perspectives. The investors’ perspective is only suitable for the long-term investments. The single economic data releases rarely cause major outlook changes. Hence, we will only see a handful of bold markings every week. On the other hand, the traders’ perspective is for traders and day-traders, because the assets’ prices are likely to react on a single piece of economic data. So, there will be a lot more bold markings on potentially market-moving news every week.

Investors’ Perspective

Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks

Tuesday, January 14

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
• 7:30 p.m. Japan - BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech

Wednesday, January 15

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
• 2:00 p.m. U.S. - Beige Book

Thursday, January 16

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
• 1:00 p.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 9:00 p.m. China -  GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y

Friday, January 17

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
• 9:15 a.m. U.S. - Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
• 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment

Crude Oil

Tuesday, January 14

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
• 4:30 p.m. U.S. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• 7:30 p.m. Japan - BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech

Wednesday, January 15

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
• 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories
• 2:00 p.m. U.S. - Beige Book

Thursday, January 16

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
• 1:00 p.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 9:00 p.m. China -  GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y

Friday, January 17

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
• 9:15 a.m. U.S. - Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
• 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment

Stock Markets

Tuesday, January 14

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
• 7:30 p.m. Japan - BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech

Wednesday, January 15

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
• 1:00 p.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech
• 2:00 p.m. U.S. - Beige Book

Thursday, January 16

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 1:00 p.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 9:00 p.m. China -  GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y

Friday, January 17

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
• 9:15 a.m. U.S. - Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
• 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment  

EUR/USD

Tuesday, January 14

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m

Wednesday, January 15

• 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - Industrial Production m/m, Trade Balance
• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
• 1:00 p.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech
• 2:00 p.m. U.S. - Beige Book

Thursday, January 16

• 7:30 a.m. Eurozone - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 1:00 p.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 9:00 p.m. China -  GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y

Friday, January 17

• 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - Final CPI y/y, Final Core CPI y/y
• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
• 9:15 a.m. U.S. - Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
• 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment 

USD/JPY

Tuesday, January 14

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
• 7:30 p.m. Japan - BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech

Wednesday, January 15

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
• 2:00 p.m. U.S. - Beige Book

Thursday, January 16

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 9:00 p.m. China -  GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y

Friday, January 17

• 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Building Permits, Housing Starts
• 9:15 a.m. U.S. - Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
• 10:00 a.m. U.S. - Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment

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Paul Rejczak

Stock Trading Strategist

Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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