Signs Of The Endgame

There’s no denying these are quite interesting times, in a Chinese curse sort of way.  Only an asteroid on a collision course with Earth, or an ISIS nuclear detonation, could make the world seem any more interesting than it already is.  Under the circumstances, it’s tempting to predict that, any day now, the stock market will recalibrate itself to the grim realities of a civilization in eclipse, and, more urgently, to a Trump presidency dangerously adrift.

With the foregoing in mind, I present today a chart that shows DIA, an ETF vehicle that tracks the Dow Industrials, rolling down from on high. There is a lot of white space below it, more than ever before, and that is what makes the chart seem so scary.  Even so, you can see that all such disturbances in the past were ultimately resolved in favor of bulls, usually quickly.  Perhaps that will prove to be the case this time as well.

I am watching AAPL in particular to keep me from hitting the panic button prematurely. The stock looks bound for a $168 target that lies $11 above current levels. Assuming it is achieved within he next 3-5 weeks — a prospect that I would rate a 60-40 bet at the moment — higher prices lie in store for the broad averages as well. Regardless, if the sharp selloff begun last Wednesday starts to snowball in the days ahead, sending DIA below July 24’s 214.68 low, we should brace for a possible avalanche.  We’ll be watching the lesser charts in the meantime, so that it does not catch us unawares. We will also look to buy puts on strength, meaning not now, not yet.

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