Gold price rises but strong dollar caps gains
London (Jan 9) Gold firmed on Monday as uncertainty ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president in January supported prices after the previous session’s retreat, although an uptick in the dollar kept a lid on gains.
The metal, which posted its biggest weekly increase in two months last week, lost some ground on Friday after a US payrolls report supported the view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, boosting the dollar. However, it found good support around $1,170/oz, the 23.6% retracement of its November to December decline.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,176.15/oz at 10.45am GMT, while US gold futures for February delivery gained $2,80 to $1,176.20.
"Trump is speaking this week," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. "On Wednesday he has a press conference, which will be very interesting, given how gold has reacted since his election."
Gold slid more than 12% in the past quarter as Trump’s election victory boosted the expectation that his tax and spending policies would boost the dollar and inflation, prompting more US rate increases.
"From our perspective, in terms of the overall economic backdrop, we see no reason to change our views," Menke said. "We are still bullish on the dollar, we still see more upside for bond yields, which of course translates into some headwinds for gold."
Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish positions in Comex gold contracts for the eighth consecutive week in the week to January 3, taking their holdings to the smallest in 11 months, data showed on Friday. Gold is highly sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.
"The December [Federal open market committee] minutes released on Wednesday emphasised that the Fed is also uncertain about the direction of fiscal policy after Trump’s win," Capital Economics said in a note.
"We still expect the central bank to hike interest rates four times this year in response to some of Trump’s more inflationary policies."
Strong outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds have lessened of late, while seasonal buying in the big Asian gold markets, where India is deep into wedding season and China is approaching the Lunar New Year, has been strong.
Silver was flat at $16.48/oz, while platinum rose 0.3% to $970.
Palladium was little changed at $755.98, having touched a five-week high at $768.10. It rallied more than 11% last week.
Source: Reuters
