Stock Market Top?...Sucker’s Play

The current rally from November 4 to December 12 (if indeed it was the top) was Minuette Wave Y of Minute Y.  Minute Wave Y (of Minor Wave B) was a wxy inverted, irregular and strong bearish flat.  Elliott called these B waves or irregular tops.  The Trump rally is basically a “sucker’s play”. The internals of this rally are sick and very selective; the McClellan Summation Index is miles away from confirming it; the Dow Jones Industrials has far exceeded the SPX, which has far exceeded the NASDAQ creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. We also have a huge On-Balance-Volume divergence.

A move down into the mid 1900’s SPX by February/March 2017 (as noted on the chart below) is my expectation.  This would fit a Minor Wave B .618 retracement of Minor Wave A (January 19-July 14) fairly matching the November 2015 – January 2016 drop (due to the raising of rates).

I expect a down-up-down year for 2017, which should end Primary Wave 4. If Primary Wave 4 ends in late 2017 (like I’m thinking), then, the final top should occur somewhere around early 2019. The shallow decline of early November (which should have seen a deep 40 week low) followed by the strong Trump Rally, probably created a fortunate, unexpected delay in the finality of this upcoming, final fifth wave.

Millennial Wave (III?) “since c.a. 1000 C.E.” Topping, early 2019?

Grand Super Cycle Wave (V) “since c.a. 1776”; Topping, early 2019?

Super Cycle Wave V “since 1942”, Topping, early 2019?

Cycle Wave 5 “since March 2009”, Topping, early 2019?

Primary Wave 4 “since late 2014”, Rolling over into late 2017?

Intermediate Wave Y “since February 11, 2016”, Topping August 2017?

Minor Wave  B “since July 14, 2016”, Rolling over into March 2017?

Minute Wave Y “since September 12, 2016”, Topped December 12, 2016?

Minuette Wave Y “since November 4, 2016”, Topped December 12, 2016?

It doesn’t matter who is in power, the crash is coming!  The above charts are perfect Elliott Wave counts. Are you ready?

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