US Dollar Cycle Update

Surf City
July 1, 2017

Cycle Status/Outlook: Long-term I believe the USD found a 15-Year Super Cycle top in early 2015.  To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first chart, a three year weekly that shows Price has dropped below my Blue 2014 uptrend line and now the 30ema is starting to roll over and should start to cap rallies acting as resistance rather than support.

Shorter term, my Trading Cycle count is a bit cloudy as I have two alternate counts. While the next TCL/DCL could also be a Yearly Cycle Low, my expectations are that even a rally out of a YCL will be corrective in nature. Strong resistance should be found in the 98.50 to 100 range.

 

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Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.” Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

The symbol for silver ‘AG’ comes from the Latin word ‘agentum’ meaning silver.

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