Silver Price 2021 Forecast: Lower Volatility, Then $30+ Per Ounce

From the panic low of the Coronavirus scare last March when silver bottomed at $11.30 to its inflation-induced peak at $29.82 in August, silver prices rose an incredible 163% during 2020 in less than five months. Yet as this article is going to press the day of the US inauguration, silver is trading just above $25.50 per ounce. In other words, since the August peak, silver has done nothing but fall by 15% over the last five months.

So what is ahead for silver as 2021 gets underway? Was the advance of the first half of 2020 a sign of things to come? Or is silver set to continue declining as it has done since the peak last August?

Silver 2021: First-Half Lower Volatility

Silver is shaping up to have a less-volatile first half of the year than it did in 2020, before a strong continuation advance develops as the second-half of the year approaches. Below we show the spot silver price from 2020 through 2021:

• Silver is currently in a trendless state. Note how both the rising trend from April 2020 (turquoise double lines), and the declining trend from the August 2020 peak (turquoise line) have both been broken. The breaking of both a rising and declining trend shows us that neither buyers nor sellers are currently in control of the silver price.
• When no active trend exists in a market, we must observe at what other support or resistance levels silver participants are buying and selling.
• Note that buyers have shown up on three occasions since September 2020 between $21.65 - $22.55 (black support). This level should continue to see buyers emerge unless proven otherwise.
• Note that sellers have shown up on at least six occasions above $27.40 (black resistance). This resistance level should continue to see sellers emerge unless proven otherwise.
• In sum, we have evidence that the silver market should remain rangebound between $21.65 - $27.40 as we enter the first half of 2021. In general, volatility has been declining as silver has oscillated between its peaks and troughs since last August. We expect that this lessening of volatility will continue as the first half of the year progresses.
• Either a strong wave of buying interest or a strong selling event must dislodge one of these groups before either a new rising trend or a new declining trend can begin. Which one will it be?

Remember Gold

As precious metals investors, we have a unique benefit in our analysis toolbox in that we can compare two historic monetary metals to one another: silver and gold. Yes, both metals have served as stores of value for the last 5,000 years. And while the focus of this article will be on the silver price forecast, we should use our knowledge of gold in order to increase our understanding of its more volatile cousin.

At this point we encourage readers to take a pause from this article in order to refresh their memories of where we see gold headed in 2021, by clicking to read this free article. 

The executive summary: gold is retesting its former 2011 all-time high resistance zone above $1,800. Following a successful retest, we expect a continuation advance to develop later this year.

Gold to Silver Ratio Breaks Down

Having refreshed our perspective on gold, we can now look for evidence that a second-half 2021 silver surge might materialize. For that, we turn to the gold to silver ratio.

In plain English, the gold to silver ratio asks: how many ounces of silver does it take to buy one ounce of gold?

As a general rule, investors should recall that a lower gold to silver ratio tends to be supportive of higher gold and silver prices, while a higher ratio tends to bring with it lower metals prices (see Coronavirus Panic, below, black).

Below is the gold to silver ratio from 2016 through 2021:

• The gold to silver ratio had been rising in favor of gold along a support band (blue) from July 2016 through July 2020. Silver prices were stagnant this entire period.
• Note how in July 2020, the gold to silver ratio decisively broke lower through this rising multi-year band at the 84 level (red callout).
• Following the breakdown, the ratio continued to decline in favor of silver down to just below 69 (black support).
• The ratio then bounced to retest the broken support at 84 in September 2020 (red callout). This retest failed to recapture the former rising trend, and the ratio has since declined again back to support (black).
• With a four-year rising trend officially broken and the retest failed, we now expect a new trend lower to develop for the gold to silver ratio.
• Presently the ratio is sitting just below 73; however, upon a break of the support level (black) near 69, we will project an official target of 55, equal to the amplitude of the entire retest (14), subtracted from the 69 support level. This target is shown in green.

Calculating Silver Targets

What would a gold to silver ratio of 55 mean for silver prices? Remember that a declining ratio typically corresponds with rising metals prices. Thus, we can make some reasonable calculations for 2021 assuming the following gold prices:

55/1 Gold to Silver Ratio

• $1,900 gold would equate to $34.54 silver
• $2,000 gold would equate to $36.36 silver
• $2,100 gold would equate to $38.18 silver

None of these gold prices are outlandish; they simply require the current $1,800 support to hold, and for prices to trend back toward peak 2020 levels.

Takeaway on Silver Prices

We expect silver to become less volatile during the first half of 2021. Following the contracting of volatility, a continuation advance is expected on a highest probability basis.

Gold itself is presently retesting its former all-time high resistance zone. Thus far, the retest has remained successful.

The gold to silver ratio has broken a multi-year rising trend, and is now expected to trend in the opposite direction. A target of 55 will be calculated once the ratio breaks lower through 69. Throughout history, lower gold to silver ratios correspond with higher metals prices.

Our best projection is that silver will climb its way into the mid-$30’s by the second half of 2021. We are currently positioning private clients and research subscribers at www.iGoldAdvisor.com for the anticipated move ahead through the purchase of physical silver, silver mining funds, and individual silver equities.

We encourage investors to carefully consider the best way to capture higher silver prices later this year for their own portfolios.

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