S&P 500 Back Below 4,400. Dip to Buy or a New Downtrend?

Stocks sold off yesterday as the fear of Fed tapering grew. Monday’s run-up was definitely a bull trap, and our short position is profitable now.

The S&P 500 index lost 1.1% on Wednesday and the futures contract continued selling off overnight. The index will most likely break below its late July consolidation and the support level of 4,370 this morning. However, it may get near a short-term bottom, as it gets closer to the 4,350 level. It’s the nearest important support level, marked by the three-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

Profitable short position

Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. We opened our short position on Thursday a week ago at the level of 4,435. The position is profitable, but we will wait for more downside movement, as there have been no confirmed short-term positive signals so far. If the market extends the short-term decline, we will move the stop-loss level lower (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):

Conclusion

The S&P 500 index got back to the 4,400 level yesterday following the Fed minutes release, among others factors. The market is expected to extend the decline this morning but it’s also likely that it will reach a short-term bottom. Thus, we may see an intraday upward correction.

Here’s the breakdown:

• The market reversed its short-term uptrend on Tuesday.
• Our last Thursday’s speculative short position is now profitable.
• We are expecting a 5% or bigger correction from the current levels.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak,

Stock Trading Strategist

Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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The information above represents analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak & Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. At the time of writing, we base our opinions and analyses on facts and data sourced from respective essays and their authors. Although formed on top of careful research and reputably accurate sources, Paul Rejczak and his associates cannot guarantee the reported data's accuracy and thoroughness. The opinions published above neither recommend nor offer any securities transaction. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading his reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees, affiliates as well as their family members may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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