Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hovers near $29.50 due to caution ahead of Fed Minutes

LONDON (August 21) Silver price (XAG/USD) price consolidates around $29.50 per troy ounce during the European hours as traders assess the upcoming release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. The Fed's Meeting Minutes for July’s policy decision could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy direction. Furthermore, traders would likely shift their focus on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The downside risk for non-yielding Silver is expected to be limited, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver 100 basis points (bps) in rate cuts by the end of this year. However, there is division among market analysts on whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 bps cut at its September meeting.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that the markets are now pricing in a nearly 67.5% odds of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in its September meeting, down from 76% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis points rate cut fell to 32.5% from 53.0% a week earlier.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman expressed caution on Tuesday about making any policy changes, citing ongoing upside risks to inflation. Bowman warned that overreacting to individual data points could undermine the progress already achieved, according to Reuters.

The safe-haven appeal of Silver is expected to decrease as tensions in the Middle East ease. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a trip to the region aimed at facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza. According to Reuters, Blinken, along with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, has raised hopes for a US "bridging proposal" that could narrow the gaps between the conflicting parties in the 10-month-old war.

FXStreet