US Dollar edges up with minor gains ahead of US Jolts and ISM Manufacturing data

LONDON (April 1) The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is consolidating this week with highs and lows coming in closer to one another at the 104.30 round level this Tuesday. Clearly, market participants are not fond of the Greenback at this moment amidst tariff uncertainty. Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Thomas Barkin said the economic reading is wrapped in a thick fog and is unclear for the Fed to read where rates should go, while recession fears are still on the table, CNBC reports. 

The economic data releases for this week could get things moving in the runup to the Nonfarm Payrolls data to be published on Friday.  For this Tuesday, the US JOLTS Job Openings for February are due, where a substantially lower number could indicate less demand in the labor force because of a slowdown in US consumption. The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is due to release its March Manufacturing data. 

Daily digest market movers: Finally some data to shake things up

• At 13:00 GMT, Richmond Bank Fed President Thomas Barkin is due to speak. 
• At 13:45 GMT, the US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data for March will see its final reading. Expectations are for a steady 49.8.
• At 14:00 GMT, a bulk data release is set to take place:
  • The US ISM manufacturing data for March:
    • The PMI component is expected to fall into contraction at 49.5, coming from 50.3.
    • The Prices Paid element is expected to tick up to 65, coming from 62.4.
    • New Orders has no forecast and was at 48.6 previously.
    • The Employment Index has no survey number and was at 47.6 the last time.
  • The US JOLTS Job Openings for February are expected to shrink to 7.63 million job postings against 7.74 million in January.
  • The US Economic Optimism Index month-on-month from the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) for April is expected to increase to 50.1, coming from 49.8.
• Equities are all over the place this Tuesday. Asian futures closed off flat on the day, the European ones are rallying near 1.00%. US equities are still making up their mind. 
• According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 85.5%. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 74.4%.
• The US 10-year yield trades around 4.16%, a fresh low for three weeks. 

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