US Dollar mildly down as markets gear up for key data

NEW YORK (May 27) The US Dollar Index (DXY) is seeing some losses on Monday as US markets remain closed for the Memorial Day break. Market participants anticipate Thursday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data in hope of additional insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance and the economy's health. The Beige Book report on Wednesday will also be eagerly anticipated.

The US economy, backed by robust data, allows the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance, which cushions the US Dollar. Despite some signs of labor market softening and dampened consumer spending, inflation remains high, which justifies Fed officials’ continued talk of patience.

Daily digest market movers: DXY is mildly down ahead of key data this week, eyes on Fed officials

• Officials from the Fed, including Mester, Bowman, Kashkari, Cook and Daly, are expected to continue advocating for a cautious approach in their scheduled speeches throughout the week. Markets continue to adjust their expectations, odds of September cut stand around 50%.
• April’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report is expected on Friday. Projections remain at 2.7% YoY for headline inflation, 2.8% for core.
• Q1 GDP is expected to be revised to 1.3% on Thursday.
• Outcome of high-tier data will continue modeling expectations on easing cycle, dictating pace of USD.

DXY technical analysis: Greenback witnesses selling pressure, while bulls struggle

The daily chart indicators display escalating bearish momentum in the DXY. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on a negative slope and remains in negative territory, suggesting that selling pressure prevails. This is further confirmed by the flat red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.

In regard to Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the DXY is operating beneath the 20-day SMA, indicating bears’ short-term efficiency. Despite this, DXY remains above the 100 and 200-day SMAs, suggesting bulls have relative strength over a more extended timeline.

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