Playing The Bull Market Till The Music Stops

The last week of June completed as an inside week that traded very close to within our expected 2969-2915 high-level consolidation range on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). The actual range for the week was 2961.75-2914.5.

Essentially, the market action started the consolidation late Monday.  It backtested against 2915, a major must-hold level, with 2914.5 printed as the "sticksave" to become the low of the week by Wednesday June 26. 

Then, price action broke back above the bull-flag acceleration trigger level at 2940 on Friday and closed around the dead highs attempt of the week/month/quarter end. So it was a very successful week setting up for the 2975/3000 targets ahead.

What’s next?

The main takeaway is that the Wednesday feedback loop/double bottom confirmed itself, providing another round of acceleration on this bull train. Bears are still in "hopium" mode and bulls are still buying every dip. Nothing has changed, and it is what it is until the music stops.

Friday closed at 2953.75 and the bulls made it happen in the final few minutes of the month/quarter end to print the dead highs wrap up. The bulls accomplished their job and now they are being rewarded with the 2975 target being already fulfilled with the Sunday night gap-up-and-go structure.

Current parameters/bias:

• Ongoing breakout is going towards 2975/3000 as short-term extensions is in play and the first half of the target is already fulfilled. We will upgrade new targets once 3000 gets hit if so.

• This bull acceleration mode remains valid when above 2940 and especially when above 2955 due to the gap up and go structure.

• 2914.50 was confirmed as temporary bottom for the feedback loop squeeze setup as price action reclaimed above 2940 last Friday

• Continue to treat bears as stuck in hopium mode and they are only back in business if the 2914.50 low gets taken out

• July will be about ‘hold half and go up’ structure or straight up continuation due to the ongoing weekly/monthly bullish setup

• Fun fact, we’re only about 7% away from the 3193 macro measured move now from 2980 current price. We have 6 months left to achieve this or more for yearend closing dead high purposes

Macro perspective/potential, watching massive cup and handle pattern:

Given that the ES market is less than 1% away from all-time highs, it’s time to talk about 3193.75. That’s the 100% measured move target of an ongoing massive cup and handle (C&H) formation on the daily/weekly/monthly charts if you zoom out and look closely.

We’re going to be using this number as a reference on the potential range expansion in the coming months given it’s an ongoing bull train from the 2728.75 June lows. To put this in another perspective, it represents roughly +8.4% gain from the current price of 2945 as of writing.

By noticing the overall zoomed out pattern/structure of the broader market, we would be prepared if the bull train keeps extending. This is quite important because in recent weeks, the bears got slaughtered and so the ongoing massive feedback loop squeeze remains strong and it’s best to be prepared so we milk for as long as we can manage.

Please remember the good old cliché:  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. This bull train can last a very long time until the music stops and actually breaks key support. If everyday becomes just finding the LOD or higher lows setup, so be it. Why argue against what the market is telling you through price action? Just hop on and ride till the wheels fall off, then rotate into the opposing direction when bears get resurrected again by breaking supports decisively.

See chart reviews and projections on the S&P 500.

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