What The RSX Bear Market May Mean For SPX500

It has been a rough year for Russian stocks.

This is shown well by the Market Vectors Russia ETF in red and especially against the volatile but upwardly moving S&P500 in blue.

When some time is taken to study this chart, however, it is clear that the true divergence between RSX and SPX happened in mid-October when the S&P 500 was stoked higher on a new round of Abenomics as Russian stocks tanked on crude’s plunge.

Now perhaps it is possible to believe that the world’s top economy and stock markets are isolated and protected from what’s happening to stocks of the world’s 8th largest economy, but the XLE may suggest otherwise.

As can be seen in the long-term weekly chart to the left updated through the end of last week, Energy Select Spider ETF (XLE) is tracking RSX down on the crude connection.

My chart analysis suggests the XLE has more work to do to the downside as does RSX and it is challenging to think that the S&P 500 will remain unaffected by those respective bear markets for too much longer.

This is particularly true considering how well RSX, XLE and SPX tracked each other until 2011’s Operation Twist, QE3 and even more truly the advent of Abenomics.

Perhaps the effects of these central bank programs will continue to keep a wedge between Russian stocks and U.S. stocks, but this is probably only true on some sort of recovery in the price of crude oil and something that seems unlikely considering its break from long-term support as discussed in last week’s Crude, Copper and the S&P500.

It may be more realistic, then, to consider that the bear market in RSX may mean something similar for SPX.

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Courtesy of http://www.peaktheories.com

*Disclosure: I own securities that reflect a short position on Russian stocks.

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