Chris Ciovacco
Articles by Chris Ciovacco
In order to understand the debate that is likely to take place within the Fed this week, it is important to understand what a “perfect world” interest rate cycle looks like from the Fed’s perspective:The Fed lowers rates to combat...
2014: Growth Is UnimpressiveEconomic data in 2014 has aligned with “slow, but still positive growth.” It is easy to find blurbs in the press similar to the June 12 segment from The Wall Street Journal below:Soft sales at...
Iraq Is The Latest Volatility CatalystFinancial markets tend to focus on one or two big stories, which is similar to patterns found in popular culture. The latest obsession is Iraq. From Reuters:Iraq’s most senior Shi’ite cleric urged...
After 88 Points, Some “Give Back” Is NormalGiven the S&P 500 pushed 88 points higher between May 15 and June 10, traders were looking for a catalyst to lighten up a bit. Wednesday morning the World Bank described growth as “...
Stunning Advance Brings New Risk For InvestorsIf top policy makers and military leaders were caught off guard by the military action in Iraq, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, then we can assume the same can be said for many...
Sentiment Speaks To Investor Confidence, Not The VIXThe endless chatter about a low VIX being indicative of investor complacency continues this week. As we noted in a May 29 “stop wasting energy on the VIX” article, the VIX...
Economy Is Not In Bear Market TerritoryIs the global economy in “rip-roaring healthy” shape? No, in fact it is far from it. However, as Friday’s employment data showed, it is still holding its own. From Bloomberg:U.S. stocks rose Friday as...
Mario’s SledgehammerOn June 4, we hypothesized the bullish key to the June 5 ECB statement was getting a mention of quantitative easing (QE). Did the bulls get what they were looking for? Yes, they did. From Bloomberg:“Mario...
The European Central Bank has telegraphed most of what will be contained in Thursday’s statement.The wild card, in terms of market reaction, most likely lies in if/how the ECB addresses the subject of quantitative easing.From an...
Low Inflation In Europe and Your PortfolioLast December, we explained why central bankers are terrified of economies that slip into a very difficult to stop deflationary spiral. European policymakers are not yet terrified, but...
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